Comparing Actuals to Estimates: The NFL 2013 Regular Season

It was a fun season of football. Now, how did the guesstimates do?

Predicting the NFL Season outcomes is like estimating a software test project - not enough information, too many variables, too much that could happen to radically change the outcome.

A while back, I posted my "estimates", along with the estimates of some sports writers. Now that the regular season is over, it's time to compare the "Actuals" to the "Estimates".

Here I list the actual regular season finishes compared to the original estimates. For each guesstimate, Green indicates a correct guess. Red indicates an incorrect guess. copyrightjoestrazzere

You can see:

• The best estimate was 75% accurate
• The worst estimate was 50% accurate
• The average estimate was about 61.5% accurate

This seems to me to compare fairly well to the way typical software projects are estimated, although I'm pretty sure the worst estimates for software were far, far worse.

		East	North	South	West	Wildcard	Wildcard
ACTUAL RESULTS
		Patriots	Bengals	Colts	Broncos	Chiefs	Chargers
		Eagles	Packers	Panthers	Seahawks	49ers	Saints
Joe Strazzere		Patriots	Ravens	Texans	Broncos	Bengals	Colts
		Giants	Packers	Falcons	Seahawks	49ers	Saints
Boston Herald
http://bostonherald.com/sports/patriots_nfl/new_england_patriots/2013/09/herald_staff_predictions
Jeff Howe		Patriots	Bengals	Colts	Broncos	Ravens	Texans
		Redskins	Packers	Falcons	Seahawks	49ers	Saints
Karen Guregian		Patriots	Ravens	Colts	Broncos	Bengals	Texans
		Giants	Packers	Falcons	Seahawks	49ers	Saints
Ron Borges		Patriots	Bengals	Texans	Broncos	Ravens	Colts
		Redskins	Packers	Saints	49ers	Seahawks	Falcons
Steve Buckley		Patriots	Bengals	Colts	Broncos	Ravens	Texans
		Giants	Packers	Falcons	Seahawks	49ers	Saints
Mark Daniels		Patriots	Bengals	Colts	Broncos	Steelers	Texans
		Redskins	Packers	Falcons	Seahawks	49ers	Saints
ESPN.com
http://espn.go.com/nfl/preview13/story/_/id/9605608/experts-nfl-predictions-2013
Bill Barnwell		Patriots	Steelers	Texans	Chiefs	Broncos	Bengals
		Giants	Packers	Bucs	Seahawks	49ers	Lions
Jeff Chadiha		Patriots	Bengals	Texans	Broncos	Ravens	Chiefs
		Redskins	Packers	Falcons	49ers	Seahawks	Bears
John Clayton		Patriots	Bengals	Texans	Broncos	Ravens	Chiefs
		Redskins	Packers	Falcons	Seahawks	49ers	Saints
David Fleming		Patriots	Bengals	Texans	Broncos	Colts	Chiefs
		Redskins	Packers	Falcons	Seahawks	49ers	Eagles
Ashley Fox		Patriots	Ravens	Texans	Broncos	Colts	Chiefs
		Redskins	Packers	Falcons	Seahawks	49ers	Saints
KC Joyner		Patriots	Bengals	Texans	Broncos	Ravens	Dolphins
		Cowboys	Packers	Falcons	Seahawks	49ers	Redskins
Rick Reilly		Patriots	Bengals	Texans	Broncos	Ravens	Colts
		Giants	Packers	Falcons	49ers	Seahawks	Redskins
Mike Sando		Patriots	Ravens	Texans	Broncos	Steelers	Bengals
		Giants	Packers	Falcons	Seahawks	49ers	Bears
Adam Shefter		Patriots	Bengals	Texans	Broncos	Colts	Steelers
		Cowboys	Packers	Falcons	Seahawks	49ers	Saints
Kevin Seifert		Patriots	Ravens	Texans	Broncos	Bengals	Colts
		Giants	Packers	Falcons	49ers	Seahawks	Saints
Seth Wickersham		Patriots	Ravens	Texans	Broncos	Bengals	Colts
		Giants	Packers	Falcons	49ers	Seahawks	Saints
Matt Williamson		Patriots	Ravens	Texans	Broncos	Bengals	Steelers
		Redskins	Packers	Saints	Seahawks	49ers	Bears
Sports Illustrated
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl/news/20130904/nfl-season-predictions-2013-super-bowl-xlviii/?sct=nfl_t1t_a4
Don Banks		Patriots	Bengals	Texans	Broncos	Ravens	Chiefs
		Cowboys	Packers	Falcons	Seahawks	49ers	Saints
Chris Burke		Patriots	Ravens	Texans	Broncos	Steelers	Bengals
		Giants	Packers	Falcons	Seahawks	49ers	Cowboys
Ben Eagle		Patriots	Bengals	Texans	Broncos	Ravens	Chiefs
		Cowboys	Packers	Falcons	Seahawks	49ers	Bears
Doug Farrar		Patriots	Bengals	Texans	Broncos	Ravens	Colts
		Redskins	Packers	Saints	Seahawks	49ers	Falcons
Tom Mantzouranis		Patriots	Bengals	Texans	Broncos	Ravens	Chiefs
		Cowboys	Packers	Falcons	Seahawks	49ers	Saints
Austin Murphy		Patriots	Bengals	Texans	Broncos	Steelers	Chiefs
		Cowboys	Bears	Falcons	Seahawks	49ers	Saints
Jim Trotter		Patriots	Bengals	Texans	Broncos	Steelers	Colts
		Redskins	Packers	Bucs	Seahawks	49ers	Falcons
MMQB
http://mmqb.si.com/2013/09/03/the-mmqbs-2013-predictions-and-preview-spectacular/
Peter King		Patriots	Bengals	Colts	Broncos	Ravens	Texans
		Giants	Packers	Falcons	49ers	Seahawks	Saints
Greg Bedard		Patriots	Steelers	Texans	Chiefs	Broncos	Ravens
		Giants	Packers	Bucs	Seahawks	49ers	Falcons
Jenny Vrentas		Patriots	Ravens	Texans	Broncos	Chiefs	Steelers
		Giants	Packers	Saints	49ers	Seahawks	Falcons
Robert Klemko		Patriots	Ravens	Texans	Broncos	Bengals	Colts
		Giants	Lions	Falcons	Seahawks	49ers	Redskins
Pro Football Talk
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/04/pfts-2013-season-predictions/
Josh Alper		Patriots	Ravens	Colts	Broncos	Bengals	Chiefs
		Cowboys	Packers	Falcons	Seahawks	49ers	Saints
Curtis Crabtree		Patriots	Bengals	Texans	Broncos	Ravens	Chiefs
		Redskins	Packers	Falcons	Seahawks	49ers	Rams
Darin Gantt		Patriots	Ravens	Texans	Broncos	Bengals	Colts
		Giants	Packers	Falcons	Seahawks	49ers	Redskins
Mike Wilkening		Patriots	Ravens	Colts	Broncos	Texans	Steelers
		Eagles	Packers	Falcons	49ers	Seahawks	Saints
Michael David Smith		Patriots	Steelers	Texans	Broncos	Bengals	Ravens
		Giants	Packers	Saints	49ers	Seahawks	Falcons
Mike Florio		Patriots	Ravens	Colts	Broncos	Texans	Bengals
		Redskins	Packers	Falcons	49ers	Seahawks	Lions
Yahoo
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/nfl-preview-week-shutdown-corner-2013-nfl-predictions-131141669--nfl.html
Frank Schwab		Patriots	Bengals	Texans	Broncos	Ravens	Chiefs
		Giants	Bears	Panthers	Seahawks	49ers	Packers
Jay Busbee		Patriots	Bengals	Colts	Broncos	Texans	Steelers
		Redskins	Packers	Falcons	Seahawks	49ers	Giants
Eric Edholm		Patriots	Bengals	Texans	Broncos	Steelers	Colts
		Cowboys	Packers	Falcons	49ers	Seahawks	Lions
Anwar Richardson		Patriots	Ravens	Texans	Broncos	Bengals	Chiefs
		Cowboys	Packers	Saints	49ers	Seahawks	Falcons
USA Today
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2013/09/04/2013-staff-picks-season-predictions/2768317/
Jarrett Bell		Patriots	Ravens	Colts	Broncos	Texans	Steelers
		Cowboys	Lions	Falcons	49ers	Seahawks	Saints
Jim Corbett		Patriots	Bengals	Texans	Broncos	Ravens	Colts
		Redskins	Packers	Falcons	Seahawks	49ers	Saints
Nate Davis		Patriots	Bengals	Texans	Broncos	Steelers	Chiefs
		Giants	Packers	Falcons	Seahawks	49ers	Saints
Lindsay H. Jones		Patriots	Ravens	Texans	Broncos	Bengals	Chiefs
		Giants	Packers	Falcons	Seahawks	49ers	Redskins
Pete O'Brien		Patriots	Ravens	Texans	Broncos	Dolphins	Chiefs
		Cowboys	Packers	Bucs	49ers	Seahawks	Falcons
Tom Pelissero		Patriots	Bengals	Colts	Broncos	Texans	Chiefs
		Cowboys	Packers	Falcons	49ers	Seahawks	Rams
CSNNE
http://www.csnne.com/blog/standing-room-only/levines-nfl-preview-part-1
Rich Levine		Patriots	Ravens	Texans	Broncos	Bengals	Steelers
		Cowboys	Packers	Falcons	Seahawks	49ers	Bears

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This article originally appeared in my blog: All Things Quality

	My name is Joe Strazzere and I'm currently a Director of Quality Assurance. I like to lead, to test, and occasionally to write about leading and testing. Find me at http://AllThingsQuality.com/.